You’ve probably heard by now that you can get a fabulous deal on new construction in Dallas but what you may not know is that homebuilders have had a massive paradigm shift in 2022.
Well we’re going to talk about that today. First we’re going to talk about the opportunities that this shift has brought to affordable new construction. Next we’re going to check out some low-priced hotspots in existing homes that are absolutely exploding right now and finally, we’re going to talk about the elephant in the room. Sometimes people worry that affordable may mean high crime and low school ratings. Well stick around to the end because we’re going to talk ALL about that.
Affordable New Construction
This article by Dallas Morning News really caught my eye. Looking at the title I was thinking “Hey, this sounds like a great post. We can talk about where Dallas builders put the most houses this year.” The more I dug into it the more excited I got because yeah it tells the highest construction numbers but it tells an even more exciting story than that.
Looking back on where new construction has been, in June of 2022 the average sales price of new construction in Dallas was $516,000. That’s a great price for a move-up buyer. If a homeowner comes out with 200,000 from selling their home, hey, $516k is pretty reasonable. That’s what builders were targeting in 2021 and early 2022. The move-up buyer and price points in the 5, 6 and 700k range.
Well imagine my surprise when I checked out the most active submarkets in Dallas and saw that 10 out of the 15 highest concentration of new construction submarkets all had a median home sales price of under 400k. And that’s the median sales price, meaning there are just as many homes priced under that $400k as there are above it.
New construction has taken a completely different turn since the Fed started raising interest rates. Mitchell Parton explains that there is simply “lower demand in communities aimed at buyers moving up from a starter home.” So while new construction used to be geared towards move-up buyers, that just isn’t working for builders anymore. Current home owners - you know, the ones who would be the move up buyers? Well they’re comparing today’s 6% interest rate to the 3% they have with their current home and they’re just saying “no thanks!” They’d rather stay put than to switch from a 3 to a 6% interest rate so the move up buyer is like poof - vanished.
So we’re seeing in Dallas this massive paradigm switch. The move-up buyer is nowhere to be seen so now this incredibly exciting shift has taken place to where they’re focusing on the first time buyer with more affordable homes. People, it is about time!
As you look at this chart of those most active submarkets you can see the affordability allstar is Kaufman County with a median price of just $324,000. I took a look at new construction in Kaufman County and get this - I found brand new construction listed for as low as 212k. The greater demand for starter homes has completely changed builders’ focus and, lucky for you, it’s resulting in vastly lower prices.
Within Kaufman County you have quite a few winners. In Forney’s Trinity Crossing subdivision you can score new construction for as low as $229,000.
In their Travis Ranch subdivision you can choose from at least five different models all priced under $300,000.
Other fantastic opportunities you have in Forney include Briarwood Hills, Arbordale, Oak Creek and Overland Grove.
Still within Kaufman County you’ll find Heartland where you can pick up a 4 bedroom, 3 bath home with 1880 square foot for less than $300,000.
In Crandall, in their Highbridge subdivision you can find a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home for only $251,000. In Crandall’s Wildcat ranch you can get a 3-2 with over 1800 square foot for just $295,000. Their River Ridge subdivision also has new construction under 300k.
In Kaufman you can score a 4-2 with almost 1,800 square foot for $295,000.
So are you getting the idea here that there are some great prices in Dallas right now?
But suppose you want to be a little closer to the action in North Dallas? Well lucky for you we have Royse City. Their Waterscape subdivision has homes beginning at $298,000. You can find dozens and dozens if not hundreds of homes all under 350,000 in their Parkside Village, Ambergrove, De Berry Reserve and Verandah subdivisions.
Further north and within a half hour commute to Plano you have Princeton. In their South Park Meadows subdivision you can score a 3 bedroom, 3 bath home with almost 1,600 square foot for $279,000.
In their Town Park North and Winchester Crossing subdivisions you have dozens of homes to pick from, all priced under $350,000.
Headed further north into Anna you’ll find their Shadowbend subdivision homes start at 325,000. Their Camden Parc and Green Meadows subdivisions have homes starting at just 358,000.
Anna’s not the only one with affordable opportunities in the north! Aubrey has its fair share of opportunities with their Aubrey Creek Estates and Silverado homes prices starting at $350,000.
West of Fort Worth and clustered along highway 114 you have massive subdivisions popping up including Sendera Ranch Watermill where you can find a 3-2 bath starting at $278,000.
Also with prices under $350,000 you have Liberty Trails Express, Elizabeth Creek and Rivers Edge.
Further South in Fort Worth you’ll find Newberry Point where you can pick up a 3-2 for $294,000.
Their Sycamore Landing, Hulen Trails and Woodland Springs all have dozens if not hundreds of homes under $350,000.
Now keep in mind these are not the only places you’ll find new construction under $350,000 these are just the massive subdivisions, among the top ten highest producing homes in the metroplex we saw this many. The market has spoken, homebuyers need more affordable homes and Dallas builders have been listening.
Well that gives you an idea of new construction.
But what about existing homes?
Glad you asked! Like I said, we’re going to take a look at Dallas’ most affordable hotspots!
Bill Hethcock from the Dallas Business Journal mentions that “Prospective buyers hunting for the most affordable homes in DFW are well-served to look to the southeast.”
He says “Even with the sharp ascent in home prices in the last two years, cities such as Forney, Terrell, Lancaster, Seagoville, Ferris, Hutchins and Wilmer offer relative bargains.” He explains that prices here are much lower “compared to neighborhoods closer to downtown Dallas, in North Dallas, and in the suburbs to the north.”
The most exciting and most vibrant of these communities is Forney. Bill Hethcock shares how “Forney’s housing market was the hottest in North Texas”
In fact, “Of all ZIP codes statewide, only Katy and New Braunfels outperformed Forney, according to the Opendoor data.”
So what makes Forney so great?
Well, affordability and tons to choose from! The deals Forney offers buyers are bringing people in from all over the nation. Just “Compare Forney and Terrell to suburbs north of Dallas with a similar-distance commute to the heart of Big D, and the difference in home prices is substantial.”
How much difference, you ask? Well let’s take a look. “From January 2022 to January 2023, the median price of homes in Frisco grew 22.2%, to $649,300. The median price in Prosper grew 19.7%, $825,400, in the same period. And in Little Elm, the median price grew 22.8%, to $429,800 according to NTREIS.”
“That means a buyer of a median-priced home in Forney would pay” anywhere from $465,000 to $70,000 less than in those northern Dallas suburbs.
And it’s not just Forney! The article goes on to mention suburbs such as “Terrell, Lancaster, Seagoville, Ferris, Hutchins and Wilmer” as well priced too. This is some seriously exciting news. Both new construction and existing construction in Dallas are finally giving some affordable options.
Alright, well let’s talk about the elephant in the room. I know you’re probably thinking, Wendy, what about crime and school ratings? If an area’s affordable won’t it be more likely to have high crime and bad schools? Well that can be true sometimes and you can also run into affluent areas that struggle with crime. Thankfully the tools exist so you can feel confident in your home search. There are a multitude of ways you can assess things like crime, schools and anything else that might be important to you in your search for the perfect place to call home. I want to share just a few of those sites with you.
Well let’s talk about crime. The first site is Family Watchdog. Family Watchdog is going to show you registered offenders in your area.. If you scroll to the bottom you’ll see the Map Legend which shows you offenses against a child, sexual battery, rape and other offenses. You simply enter an address, for example I entered Washington DC. Whew! Looking like the whitehouse might need to amp up their security a bit!
There are several other sites that can give you a feel about crime in an area: crimegrade.org, neighborhoodscout, and areavibes.
Now suppose you’re curious about schools. You need to know if an area has good schools. Well fortunately there are multiple ways to check out schools. You have niche.com, greatschools.org and my personal favorite quantitative source - the Texas Education Association. There is no opinion in this source and that’s why I like it so much. It’s pure data and can give you an excellent idea of how schools are doing. In fact, I made an entire guide of TEA school ratings covering most counties in the Dallas area. You can see on this guide that most counties scored some A’s, mostly B’s and just a few C’s. Collin County made the strongest appearance with just A’s and four B’s Now if you’re an absolute data junkie you can check out the TEA’s website for a full spreadsheet analysis that will give you all the school information you need and a little more besides!
The third site I want to mention to you is world population review. This site is loaded with incredibly annoying ads but in between those ads is a mother load of information. Say for example, you want a home that is stable and not growing, or you want the opposite, you want a home that is exploding in growth so you’ll be sure to find new construction here. You can find that out here. For example, check out Midlothian’s growth curve compared to Plano’s. Midlothian is growing at a rate of 4.43% annually whereas. Plano is a mostly landlocked city with older homes. It is growing at a rate of .88%.
Say you’d like a suburb that has mostly homeowners. Folks put down deep roots and you like that idea. Or say, you plan on renting and would like an area where you can find plenty of selection. You can find that out here. In fact, let’s compare Midlothian to Denton. Midlothian has a home ownership rate of 80.1% whereas Denton has a home ownership rate of 50%. Denton is a big college town so that’s very logical but again, if gives you a good flavor of the suburb.
Say you want to know if a suburb has mostly families or is a vibrant singles scene. You want to know if there are going to be plenty of sports and activities for your kiddos or you want to know whether there are going to be plenty of bars and comedy clubs. Well, World Population Review can tell you how many people are married and how many people have kiddos! The cool thing about world population review is it can help you visualize a suburb using criteria you might not have thought to check. Would you have thought to check population density to figure out how crowded a suburb will be? Probably not! But World Population Review can show you that. This is an excellent site when you’re trying to get information about a suburb.
It could be that you’re still caught up on the big picture. Like you’re wondering when the market’s going to crash so you can get a good deal anywhere you look. Well, we talk about that in this video, which you may want to check out next!